peter martin

With McCain as the presumptive nominee (barring a Patriots-level choke job) on the Republican side and Obama with the momentum for the Democrats, I’ve been putting a little bit of thought into possible VP choices.

For McCain, I think his choice will be largely dependent on whether he’s facing Hillary or Obama. His chance at the presidency increases dramatically if Hillary wins the nomination, because it’s one of the few ways to get the conservative Republican base to actually get up and vote. They won’t necessarily embrace McCain, but they will be roused to vote against Hillary in a manner similar to the focus on social issues (mostly abortion and gay rights) that allowed Bush to get his two terms. There really are just a lot of people out there that hate Hillary or the Clintons. (as an aside, I’m not a Hillary fan, but I am as amazed by the level of vitriol leveled at her as many of her supporters. Stanley Fish had a solid article about this in the Times earlier this month.) Anyway, I think he’ll have a more diverse set of options here, and I would think he could get away with having a VP candidate with similar views (but younger of course) to reinforce his own candidacy. Chuck Hagel would be an interesting choice.

If it’s Obama, McCain has a much bigger fight on his hands. Obama eats away at the moderates and independents that McCain has always relied upon, and it doesn’t appear that an Obama nomination would get the voters out in any large numbers. I think he would have to reach out to someone more palatable to conservatives here, and really stress the importance of the VP to such an old candidate. Huckabee is an obvious option with his surprising support in this race, though the idea sickens me. Jeb Bush is the smartest decision, to me. He’s much more intelligent than his brother, was a popular governor in a Southern state, and was a competent and moderately successful businessman. He is also popular in the Hispanic community, thanks no doubt to his fluency in Spanish and his Mexican wife, which could help the Republicans keep the increasingly influential Hispanic vote in play. I suppose a complete “out of left field” theory could also offer up Condoleeza Rice as a VP, though she may be a liability at this point in the war.

On the Dem side, we already know that they will be facing McCain and it becomes a little easier to prognosticate. Both would be wise to court Bill Richardson, the onetime Presidential candidate and popular governor of New Mexico. He is a fine speaker, would help to bring in both the Hispanic and Southwest votes, and brings a perspective on global warming and energy poltics that both could use to their advantage. John Edwards would also be a decent choice, but he has already stated he has no interest in the position.

Anyway, to wrap all of this up, I’ll go with my gut on this one. McCain-Bush (feels strange to type) vs. Obama-Richardson in the general election. I just can’t help but shake the feeling that, for all the attention being paid to the first legitimate late-stage black and female candidates, it will be the increasingly powerful (and underappreciated) Hispanic vote that will end up dictating the general election.

Oh, and check out www.glassbooth.com for the candidates’ stances on the issues; you can also take a test on the issues important to you to find out which candidate best fits you.